{"id":126,"date":"2004-09-13T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2004-09-13T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.ktchiu.com\/?p=126"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T16:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/?p=126","title":{"rendered":"\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\uff1a\u300cMoneyball\u300d\uff08\u4e0a\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5176\u5be6\u81ea\u5f9e\u5e74\u521d\u7528\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8b80\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u5beb\u95dc\u65bc\u5b83\u7684\u4ecb\u7d39\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u5de6\u60f3\u53f3\u60f3\uff0c\u5b83\u6240\u6558\u8ff0\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5c31\u53ea\u50cf\u5b83\u7684\u526f\u6a19\uff0c\u300cThe art of winning an unfair game\u300d\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u88e1\u9762\u6709\u592a\u591a\u6709\u95dc\u7f8e\u570b\u68d2\u7403\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u3001\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7684\u898f\u5247\u3001\u7d00\u9304\u8207\u6578\u64da\u2026\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6a23\u96d6\u7136\u300c\u975e\u5e38\u68d2\u7403\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53c8\u5145\u65a5\u8457\u8b93\u4eba\u4e0d\u77e5\u5f9e\u4f55\u8b1b\u8d77\u7684\u5343\u982d\u842c\u7dd2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5148\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e00\u4e0b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u300c\u7269\u7406\u6027\u8cea\u300d\u3002\u6211\u662f\u5f9e\u7db2\u8def\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728Amazon.com<\/a>\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7684\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u53ea\u6709\u786c\u76ae\u7248\u672c\uff08\u7cbe\u88dd\u672c\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff09\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5728\u62ff\u7684\u6642\u5019\u591a\u5c11\u6709\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7fd2\u6163\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e5f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7dad\u6301\u5f97\u883b\u597d\u7684\u3002\u5167\u5bb9\u6709288\u9801\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5bc6\u5bc6\u9ebb\u9ebb\u7684\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u9802\u591a\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u8868\u683c\u6216\u5217\u8868\u7f77\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7576\u6210\u6bcf\u5929\u908a\u4e0a\u4e0b\u73ed\u3001\u908a\u7df4\u82f1\u6587\u95b1\u8b80\u3001\u908a\u5b78\u7fd2\u7f8e\u570b\u8077\u68d2\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5a92\u4ecb\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8207\u91cd\u91cf\uff0c\u5012\u662f\u500b\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u662fMichael Lewis<\/a>\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e4b\u524d\u8457\u4f5c\u591a\u534a\u8207\u8ca1\u7d93\u8da8\u52e2\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u4f5c\u5bb6\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u300cNext\u300d\u3001\u300cThe New New Thing\u300d\u3001\u300cLiar\u2019s Poker\uff08\u4e2d\u6587\u672c\u70ba\u8001\u5343\u9a19\u5c40\uff1a\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u8d85\u7d1a\u71df\u696d\u54e1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/a>\uff09\u300d\u2026\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u92b7\u8def\u90fd\u76f8\u7576\u597d\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f1990\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684Liar\u2019s Poker\uff0c\u66f4\u66fe\u767b\u4e0aNew York Times\u7684Bestseller\u699c\u9996\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u76f8\u7576\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5728\u8ca1\u7d93\u8207\u65b0\u805e\u754c\uff0c\u8a73\u7d30\u7684\u4ecb\u7d39\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u6240\u9644\u4ed6\u7684\u4ecb\u7d39\u7db2\u9801\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\uff1b\u53ea\u662f\u9019\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u8aaa\u660e\u4ed6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8de8\u5230\u300c\u68d2\u7403\u300d\u9019\u500b\u602a\u7570\u800c\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u9818\u57df\u4f86\u2026<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u6703\u5beb\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u500b\u5c0f\u5c0f\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc Oakland Athletics<\/a>\u96d6\u7136\u662fMLB\u6700\u7aae\u7684\u7403\u968a\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d0f\u90a3\u9ebc\u591a\u5834\u7403\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u5148\u4f86\u770b\u770bBilly Beane\u63a5\u624b\u5f8c\uff0cA\u2019s\u9019\u652f\u795e\u5947\u5c0f\u5e02\u5834\u7403\u968a\uff0c\u6240\u82b1\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u8207\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u5e74\u4efd<\/td>\n\u52dd<\/td>\n\u6557<\/td>\n\u52dd\u7387<\/td>\n\u85aa\u8cc7\u7e3d\u984d<\/td>\n\u85aa\u8cc7\u6392\u540d<\/td>\n\u52dd\u5834\u6210\u672c<\/td>\n\u7403\u5b63\u7d50\u679c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998<\/td>\n74<\/td>\n88<\/td>\n0.457<\/td>\n20.1M<\/td>\n28\/30<\/td>\n0.27M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u6700\u5f8c\uff08\u7b2c\u56db\uff09\u3001\u672a\u9032\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n0.537<\/td>\n24.2M<\/td>\n26\/30<\/td>\n0.28M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u7b2c\u4e8c\u3001\u672a\u9032\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000<\/td>\n91<\/td>\n70<\/td>\n0.565<\/td>\n32.1M<\/td>\n25\/30<\/td>\n0.35M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u51a0\u8ecd\u3001AL\u51a0\u8ecd\u6557<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001<\/td>\n102<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n0.630<\/td>\n33.8M<\/td>\n29\/30<\/td>\n0.33M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff08\u5916\u5361\uff09\u3001AL\u51a0\u8ecd\u6557<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/td>\n103<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n0.636<\/td>\n40.0M<\/td>\n28\/30<\/td>\n0.39M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u51a0\u8ecd\u3001AL\u51a0\u8ecd\u6557<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/td>\n96<\/td>\n66<\/td>\n0.593<\/td>\n50.3M<\/td>\n23\/30<\/td>\n0.52M <\/td>\n\u5206\u5340\u51a0\u8ecd\u3001AL\u51a0\u8ecd\u6557<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/td>\n83<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n0.585<\/td>\n59.4M<\/td>\n16\/30<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

\u8a3b\uff1a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u85aa\u8cc7\u7e3d\u984d\u51fa\u81eaUSA Today<\/a>\uff0c2004\u6210\u7e3e\u8a08\u7b97\u81f39\/12\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u85aa\u8cc7\u7e3d\u984d\u600e\u6a23\u90fd\u5728\u5e7e\u5343\u842c\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u5fc3\u751f\u61f7\u7591\uff1a\u300c\u600e\u9ebc\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u4e5f\u7b97\u662f\u5f88\u5c11\u55ce\uff1f\u90a3\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u7403\u968a\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\uff1f\u300d\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u908a\u8209\u51fa\u5e7e\u500b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4e00\u908a\u8b93\u5404\u4f4d\u611f\u53d7\u4e00\u4e0b\u7f8e\u570b\u8077\u68d2\u5546\u696d\u5316\u7684\u5a01\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caA\u2019s\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7684\u300c\u76f8\u5c0d\u5c11\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u57282004\u5e74\u7684\u5404\u968a\u85aa\u8cc7\u6392\u884c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u5e7e\u5e74\u9593\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u9078\u624b\u85aa\u8cc7\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u8b93A\u2019s\u768459.4M\u572830\u652f\u7403\u968a\u9593\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u5341\u516d\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u9664\u4e86\u4eca\u5e74\u4e4b\u5916\uff0cA\u2019s\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u5728\u5f8c\u5341\u540d\u9593\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4ee5\u9019\u9ebc\u4f4e\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u8b93\u52dd\u7387\uff08\u9664\u4e86Billy\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u5916\uff09\u90fd\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u4e94\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u7e8c\u56db\u5e74\u8d85\u904e\u4e5d\u5341\u52dd\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0d\u8aaa\u662f\u5947\u8e5f\u4e86\u5427\uff01\u53ef\u60dc\u9019\u56db\u5e74\u90fd\u6709\u6253\u9032\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd\uff0c\u537b\u90fd\u5728\u5206\u5340\u51a0\u8ecd\u8cfd\u4e2d\u843d\u99ac\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u5275\u9020\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5947\u8e5f\uff0c\u53ea\u597d\u8aaa\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u8cfd\u4e8b\u8207\u9577\u671f\u5b63\u8cfd\u9084\u662f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff01<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u662f\u4e0d\u7ba1\u77ed\u671f\u8cfd\u4e8b\u9593\uff08\u9326\u6a19\u8cfd\u3001\u5967\u904b\u3001\u6216\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u51a0\u8ecd\u7cfb\u5217\u8cfd<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u7d93\u9a57\u5c0d\u6700\u5f8c\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff1b\u5149\u5c07\u5728\u6280\u8853\u6c34\u6e96\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u6bbf\u5802\u4e2d\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u53d6\u52dd\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\u60f3\u50cf\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u518d\u56de\u53bb\u770b\u770b\u4e0a\u9762\u5169\u500b\u8868\u683c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u4ee5\u300c\u7372\u5f97\u52dd\u5834\u300d\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u9019\u5169\u652f\u7403\u968a\u57281998~2003\u9019\u516d\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u5728\u5b63\u8cfd\u9593\u8981\u62ff\u4e00\u5834\u52dd\u5229\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5404\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63d0\u5230\u85aa\u8cc7\uff0c\u4e0d\u514d\u8981\u642c\u51fa\u4eba\u7a31\u300c\u90aa\u60e1\u5e1d\u570b\u300d\u7684\u6d0b\u57fa\u968a\u51fa\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e00\u756a\u3002\u5c31\u4ee5\u540c\u662f\u8fd1\u4e03\u5e74\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u55ae\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u6d0b\u57fa\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u9663\u5bb9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u5e74\u4efd<\/td>\n\u52dd<\/td>\n\u6557<\/td>\n\u52dd\u7387<\/td>\n\u85aa\u8cc7\u7e3d\u984d<\/td>\n\u85aa\u8cc7\u6392\u540d<\/td>\n\u52dd\u5834\u6210\u672c<\/td>\n\u7403\u5b63\u7d50\u679c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998<\/td>\n114<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n0.703<\/td>\n63.2M<\/td>\n2\/30<\/td>\n0.55M <\/td>\n\u4e16\u754c\u51a0\u8ecd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999<\/td>\n98<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n0.586<\/td>\n88.1M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n0.90M <\/td>\n\u4e16\u754c\u51a0\u8ecd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n74<\/td>\n0.540<\/td>\n92.9M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n1.07M <\/td>\n\u4e16\u754c\u51a0\u8ecd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001<\/td>\n95<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n0.594<\/td>\n112.3M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n1.18M <\/td>\nAL\u51a0\u8ecd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/td>\n103<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n0.640<\/td>\n125.9M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n1.22M <\/td>\nAL\u5206\u5340\u51a0\u8ecd\u6557<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/td>\n101<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n0.623<\/td>\n152.7M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n1.51M <\/td>\nAL\u51a0\u8ecd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/td>\n90<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n0.629<\/td>\n184.2M<\/td>\n1\/30<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

\u8a3b\uff1a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u85aa\u8cc7\u7e3d\u984d\u51fa\u81eaUSA Today<\/a>\uff0c2004\u6210\u7e3e\u8a08\u7b97\u81f39\/12\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u65bc\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8077\u696d\u904b\u52d5\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5546\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u6210\u7e3e\u90fd\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5feb\u8f49\u5316\u6210\u85aa\u8cc7\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u82e5\u5c07\u5728\u68d2\u7403\u8cfd\u4e2d\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u968a\u90fd\u76f8\u540c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u300c\u52dd\u5229\u300d\uff0c\u8207\u8a72\u5e74\u6240\u82b1\u7684\u6210\u672c\u300c\u85aa\u8cc7\u300d\u4e00\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u5c31\u66c9\u5f97A\u2019s\u591a\u6709\u6548\u7387\u3001\u4e5f\u591a\u8b93\u4eba\u773c\u7d05\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5176\u5be6\u81ea\u5f9e\u5e74\u521d\u7528\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8b80\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u5beb\u95dc\u65bc\u5b83\u7684\u4ecb\u7d39\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u5de6\u60f3\u53f3\u60f3\uff0c\u5b83\u6240\u6558\u8ff0\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5c31\u53ea<\/p>\n

Read More<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-baseball","category-business-related"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}