{"id":127,"date":"2004-09-17T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2004-09-17T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.ktchiu.com\/?p=127"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T16:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/?p=127","title":{"rendered":"\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\uff1a\u300cMoneyball\u300d\uff08\u4e2d\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6211\u5011\u5f97\u518d\u82b1\u9ede\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u8b1b\u8b1b\u300c\u68d2\u7403\u300d\u9019\u5947\u7279\u7684\u904b\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u5c31\u7b97\u662f\u5728\u5404\u7a2e\u79d1\u5b78\u6216\u975e\u79d1\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5341\u5206\u767c\u9054\u3001\u53c8\u662f\u73fe\u4ee3\u68d2\u7403\u767c\u6e90\u5730\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4e00\u5806\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u80fd\u5920\u5224\u6bb5\u300c\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7403\u54e1\u300d\u7684\u898f\u5247\u6216\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u65e5\u672c\u8077\u68d2\uff08\u6216\u662f\u7532\u5b50\u5712\uff0c\u66f4\u71b1\u8840\uff09\u6703\u6d41\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u300c\u885d\u523a\u901f\u5ea6\u300d\u3001\u300c\u63e1\u529b\u300d\u3001\u300c\u80cc\u7b4b\u529b\u300d\u2026\u7b49\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u4ecd\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u300c\u6211\u8dd1\u591a\u5feb\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u6253\u68d2\u7403\u6703\u6253\u591a\u597d\u300d\u6216\u662f\u300c\u6211\u80cc\u7b4b\u529b\u6709\u5169\u767e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7403\u901f\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u7834\u4e00\u767e\u56db\u5341\u4e94\u300d\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u5728\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5be6\u6230\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8207\u8a13\u7df4\uff0c\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7403\u54e1\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u6574\u500b\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd1\u5e74\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u512a\u79c0\u9078\u624b\u8f38\u51fa\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u8077\u68d2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u9ebc\u5728\u5927\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u4e4b\u9593\u3001\u6216\u662f\u90a3\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9078\u79c0\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u7403\u968a\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u8981\u600e\u6a23\u624d\u80fd\u627e\u51fa\u300c\u672a\u4f86\u4e4b\u661f\u300d\u5462\uff1f\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u7403\u63a2\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u300c\u773c\u898b\u70ba\u6191\u300d\uff0c\u89aa\u773c\u770b\u770b\u9019\u7403\u54e1\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u6253\u7403\u7684\u6599\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u96fb\u5f71\u4e2d\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u90a3\u7a2e\u5728\u9109\u9593\u4e82\u6643\u7684\u8001\u7403\u63a2\uff0c\u5149\u6191\u773c\u775b\u5c31\u80fd\u5224\u65b7\u51fa\u7403\u901f\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c31\u7a81\u7136\u6293\u51fa\u500b\u5929\u624d\u9078\u624b\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u6d3e\u65b0\u8208\u7684\u7403\u63a2\u5011\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u6191\u8457\u67d0\u4e9b\u6574\u7406\u904e\u7684\u6bd4\u8cfd\u7d00\u9304\u8207\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6bd4\u8f03\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5206\u6790\uff09\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5920\u5224\u65b7\u7403\u54e1\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6216\u80fd\u529b\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u5be6\u300c\u6f5b\u529b\u300d\u8207\u300c\u5be6\u529b\u300d\u539f\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u7576\u505a\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4f86\u770b\u3002\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u9ad8\u4e2d\u751f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7df4\u7fd2\uff08\u6216\u662f\u5c0f\u6bd4\u8cfd\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u96a8\u4fbf\u628a\u7403\u6253\u5230\u770b\u4e0d\u898b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u4ed6\u662f\u5929\u4efd\u76f8\u7576\u597d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u9ad8\u4e2d\u751f\u8003\u8a66\u6210\u7e3e\u4e5f\u5f88\u68d2\u3001\u8ac7\u5410\u53c8\u98a8\u8da3\u3001\u9084\u5f88\u6709\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u7684\u98a8\u683c\uff0c\u5728\u6821\u969b\u6bd4\u8cfd\u4e2d\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u5404\u7a2e\u6295\u624b\u6642\uff0c\u5404\u7a2e\u653b\u64ca\u6578\u64da\u90fd\u80fd\u9059\u9059\u9818\u5148\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u4e0d\u50cf\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u70baMLB\u660e\u661f\u8cfd\u5148\u767c\u9078\u624b\u7684\u6750\u6599\uff1f\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u5b50\u7684\u9078\u624b\u9032\u5165\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u4ed6\u80fd\u5920\u5229\u7528\u4e0d\u505c\u7684\u5954\u6ce2\u8207\u8cfd\u4e8b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u4ed6\u5728Rookie A\u8868\u73fe\u5341\u5206\u6436\u773c\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u7576\u7403\u5718\u5e0c\u671b\u9019\u500b\u7403\u54e1\u80fd\u5920\u5feb\u9ede\u64d4\u7576\u5927\u4efb\u6642\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u5404\u500b\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u5be6\u529b\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u904e\u5feb\u6216\u662f\u904e\u6162\u7684\u8abf\u6574\u8207\u8abf\u5ea6\uff0c\u8b93\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u5c31\u5927\u7d05\u5927\u7d2b\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5c31\u6b64\u5931\u6557\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4e3b\u89d2\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4e00\u624b\u628a<a href=http:\/\/athletics.mlb.com\/ target=_blank> Oakland Athletics<\/a>\u6253\u9020\u6210\u5c0f\u5e02\u5834\u52c1\u65c5\u7684<a href=http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/NASApp\/mlb\/mlb\/stats_historical\/mlb_player_locator_results.jsp?playerLocator=beane target=_blank>Billy Beane<\/a>\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5f8c\u8005\u3002\u5728\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5404\u500b\u6bb5\u843d\u4e2d\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u9019\u6bb5\u5931\u6557\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u4ed6\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u5229\u7528\u76ee\u524dMLB\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6bcf\u5e74\u8209\u8fa6\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u9078\u79c0\u6703\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u300c\u591a\u8d0f\u300d\u7684\u601d\u8003\u53bb\u5275\u9020\u7403\u54e1\u4ea4\u6613\u3001\u600e\u9ebc\u5f9e\u4e00\u4e9b\u5225\u4eba\u4e0d\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u53bb\u770b\u51fa\u6709\u5be6\u529b\u4f46\u662f\u672a\u88ab\u767c\u5d1b\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u2026\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e00\u6b65\u6b65\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u7c4c\u78bc\uff0c\u63db\u53d6\u7403\u968a\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5be6\u529b\u8207\u6230\u7e3e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u770b\u5230\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u731c\u5230\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u6211\u60f3\u8aaa\u7684\u300c\u4e0d\u540c\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u300d\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><b>\u7403\u54e1\u4f86\u6e90\u7684\u8c50\u5bcc\u5ea6\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\u7403\u63a2\u9019\u500b\u884c\u696d\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6703\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7403\u54e1\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u8db3\u5920\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8b93\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u6c92\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u4e00\u773c\u5f9e\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u7403\u54e1\u4e2d\uff0c\u6311\u51fa\u5920\u591a\u3001\u5920\u597d\u7684\u660e\u65e5\u4e4b\u661f\uff1b\u800c\u6210\u7e3e\u9802\u5c16\u7684\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u9802\u7aef\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u53ef\u898b\u5ea6\u8207\u6240\u8655\u7403\u968a\u6210\u7e3e\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u66f4\u56e0\u70ba\u6578\u91cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8b93\u5404\u500b\u7403\u968a\u5728\u9078\u79c0\u6642\u7684\u9806\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u6cd5\u4fdd\u8b49\u80fd\u88dc\u5230\u6700\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u9700\u8981\u6709\u7403\u63a2\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5920\u6311\u51fa\u9664\u4e86\u5a92\u9ad4\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f80\u6210\u7e3e\u4e26\u975e\u9802\u5c16\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u537b\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u9577\u5230\u70ba\u7403\u968a\u63d0\u9ad8\u6230\u529b\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u7403\u63a2\u4e5f\u8981\u6709\u5920\u4e45\u3001\u770b\u5f97\u5920\u591a\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5224\u65b7\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u7403\u54e1\u5011\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u56e0\u70ba\u88ab\u653e\u5728\u9069\u5408\u6216\u662f\u4e0d\u7576\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u6216\u662f\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5149\u6191\u78bc\u9336\u8207\u6e2c\u901f\u69cd\u662f\u4e0d\u5920\u7684\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u9752\u68d2\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7403\u968a\u6578\u76ee\u5982\u679c\u5920\u591a\uff0c\u6709\u6f5b\u529b\u7684\u9078\u624b\u6703\u88ab\u7a00\u91cb\u5728\u5404\u968a\u4e4b\u9593\uff08\u7576\u7136\u300c\u53e4\u8c6a\u300d\u7d1a\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u5f37\u6821\u662f\u4f8b\u5916\uff09\uff0c\u5404\u81ea\u5728\u6559\u7df4\u6240\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u6700\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u64d4\u7576\u91cd\u4efb\uff01\u4e5f\u8a31\u9019\u500b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u80fd\u8b93\u7403\u54e1\u767c\u5149\u767c\u71b1\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u53ea\u662f\u52a0\u5feb\u52a0\u6df1\u904b\u52d5\u50b7\u5bb3\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u6c38\u9060\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u5728\u77f3\u792b\u4e2d\u9078\u51fa\u539f\u77f3\u4e26\u52a0\u4ee5\u52a0\u5de5\uff0c\u4ee5\u5c0f\u6210\u672c\u7372\u5f97\u5927\u5927\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u66f4\u8b93\u7403\u63a2\u6210\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u74b0\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u65e5\u672c\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8077\u696d\u7403\u968a\u7684\u7403\u63a2\u5011\u90fd\u53ea\u5c07\u773c\u5149\u653e\u5728\u9032\u5165\u7532\u5b50\u5712\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u53ea\u653e\u5728\u5728\u7532\u5b50\u5712\u6709\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u8eab\u4e0a\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u53ef\u80fd\u4e16\u4e0a\u53ea\u6703\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e0d\u5920\u3001\u9ad4\u578b\u4e0d\u4f73\u3001\u6c92\u591a\u4e45\u5c31\u6d88\u5931\u5728\u91ce\u7403\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6295\u624b\uff0c\u537b\u5c11\u4e86Ichiro\u9019\u4f4d\u6311\u6230\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u5929\u624d\u6253\u8005\uff01\u9019\u5c07\u662f\u6211\u5011\u591a\u5927\u7684\u640d\u5931\uff1f<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u9078\u79c0\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u516c\u5e73\u516c\u6b63\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\u6709\u4e86\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u7403\u54e1\u3001\u4e5f\u6709\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u6167\u773c\u8b58\u82f1\u96c4\u7684\u7403\u63a2\uff0c\u600e\u9ebc\u6a23\u8b93\u9019\u4e9b\u5c0f\u5c07\u5011\u9069\u7576\u4e14\u5408\u7406\u5730\u9032\u5165\u8077\u696d\u68d2\u7403\u5404\u500b\u7403\u968a\uff0c\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u8ab2\u984c\u3002\u6240\u8b02\u9078\u79c0\uff0c\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u516d\u652f\u7403\u968a\u5728\u4e94\u500b\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u7403\u968a\u90fd\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u7403\u54e1\u8eab\u4e0a\u5927\u4f5c\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u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