{"id":128,"date":"2004-09-24T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2004-09-24T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.ktchiu.com\/?p=128"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T16:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/?p=128","title":{"rendered":"\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\uff1a\u300cMoneyball\u300d\uff08\u4e0b\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>\u806f\u76df\u8207\u8fb2\u5834\u9593\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\u4e0d\u7ba1\u540d\u7a31\u6703\u662f\u300c\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u300d\u3001\u300c\u4e8c\u8ecd\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u8fb2\u5834\u300d\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1b\u800c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u65bc\u5b83\u7684\u540d\u7a31\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u9019\u500b\u540d\u7a31\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u8981\u5728\u4e4e\u7684\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u4e00\u8ecd\u300d\u8207\u300c\u4e8c\u8ecd\u300d\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u600e\u9ebc\u5347\u3001\u600e\u9ebc\u964d\u3001\u600e\u9ebc\u767b\u9304\u8207\u53d6\u6d88\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u600e\u9ebc\u5728\u6b0a\u5229\u8207\u7fa9\u52d9\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7403\u54e1\u85aa\u8cc7\uff09\u9593\u898f\u7bc4\u6e05\u695a\u2026\u9019\u4e9b\u57f7\u884c\u9762\u7684\u96dc\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6216\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u7403\u968a\u6210\u7acb\u4e8c\u8ecd\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7403\u968a\u5c1a\u672a\u8ddf\u9032\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u806f\u76df\u61c9\u8a72\u5148\u8a02\u51fa\u540c\u70ba\u8077\u68d2\u7403\u54e1\u7684\u8fb2\u5834\u7cfb\u7d71\u5167\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u767b\u9304\u6216\u53d6\u6d88\u767b\u9304\u3001\u767b\u9304\u6642\u7684\u9650\u5236\u70ba\u4f55\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u50b7\u5175\u540d\u55ae\u5236\u5ea6\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u53ebDisable 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Sleep, Play Baseball\u300d\u9019\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\uff08\u4e00\u5e74\u50c5\u670976\u5834\u6bd4\u8cfd\uff09\u7684Single-A\u7d1a\u7403\u968a\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u521d\u6b21\u7c3d\u7d04\u7684\u90a3\u5e74\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u4ee5\u6708\u85aa USD 850\u4f5c\u70ba\u8d77\u85aa\uff1b\u82e5\u662f\u8eab\u5728\u6253\u4e00\u6574\u5e74\u7684Single-A\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u53ef\u4ee5\u9818\u5230USD 1,050\uff08\u7d04\u65b0\u81fa\u5e63\u4e09\u842c\u516d\uff09\u7684\u6708\u85aa\uff1b\u82e5\u662f\u5347\u4e0a\u4e86Double-A\u7d1a\u7684\u7403\u968a\uff0c\u5247\u6708\u85aa\u589e\u52a0\u5230USD 1,500\uff08\u7d04\u65b0\u81fa\u5e63\u4e94\u842c\u51fa\u982d\uff09\u3002\u8981\u662f\u50cf\u9673\u91d1\u92d2\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u5e38\u5f85\u7684Triple A\uff0c\u5e95\u85aa\u5247\u662fUSD 2,150\uff08\u7d04\u65b0\u81fa\u5e63\u4e03\u842c\u4e94\uff09\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5217\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u90fd\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u7c3d\u7d04\u91d1\u984d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u82e5\u9084\u5728\u540c\u6a23\u7b49\u7d1a\uff0c\u6bd4\u9700\u5f80\u4e0a\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u9802\u591a\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u6bcf\u5929USD 20\uff08\u7d04\u4e03\u767e\u584a\u65b0\u81fa\u5e63\uff09\u7684\u4f19\u98df\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5728\u54ea\u500b\u7b49\u7d1a\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6578\u64da\u5728<a href=http:\/\/www.minorleaguebaseball.com\/help\/faq\/ target=_blank>\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u7684\u5b98\u7db2<\/a>\u4e0a\u5217\u7684\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u5347\u4e0a\u5927\u806f\u76df\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u770b<a href=http:\/\/bigleaguers.yahoo.com target=_blank>MLBPA\uff08\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7403\u54e1\u5de5\u6703\uff09<\/a>\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684<a href=http:\/\/us.i1.yimg.com\/us.yimg.com\/i\/spo\/mlbpa\/mlbpa_cba.pdf target=_blank>\u5236\u5f0f\u5408\u7d04\u5167\u5bb9<\/a>\u4e86\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u4e0a\u5927\u806f\u76df\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u85aa\u6c34\u662f\u4ee5\u4e00\u500b\u7403\u5b63\u81f3\u5c11\u662fUSD 300,000\uff08\u7d04\u5408\u65b0\u81fa\u5e63\u4e00\u5343\u842c\u7684\u5e74\u85aa\uff09\u7684\u8cbb\u7387\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\uff1b\u82e5\u662f\u4e0a\u904e\u5927\u806f\u76df\u518d\u4e0b\u653e\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\uff0c\u85aa\u8cc7\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u4ee5\u5e74\u85aaUSD 50,000\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u7b97\u4e0d\u662f\u660e\u661f\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u5149\u5728\u85aa\u8cc7\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\uff0cTriple-A\u3001\u5f9e\u672a\u4e0a\u904e\u5927\u806f\u76df\u7684\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u8207\u4e0a\u904e\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u5929\u5927\u806f\u76df\u3001\u518d\u56de\u5230Triple-A\u7684\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u81f3\u5c11\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e00\u500d\u3002\u5728\u5927\u806f\u76df\u5f85\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u8d8a\u4e45\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u5c31\u9818\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\uff1b\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8aaa\u5e7e\u4e4e\u88ab\u795e\u5316\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u795e\uff09\u7684\u5927\u806f\u76df\u6bd4\u8cfd\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0a\u6210\u70baBig Leaguer\uff0c\u662f\u6240\u6709\u68d2\u7403\u4eba\u7684\u5922\u60f3\u5929\u5802\u4e86\uff01\u7576\u7136\u9019\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u8b93\u7403\u54e1\u62fc\u547d\u5f37\u5316\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u662f\u806f\u76df\u8207\u7403\u5718\u6240\u7d93\u71df\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u64cd\u4f5c\u6574\u500b\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u554a\uff01<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u4ea4\u6613\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b8c\u5099<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\u5c31\u7b97\u7403\u968a\u6709\u8fb2\u5834\u7cfb\u7d71\u3001\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u8207\u798f\u5229\u898f\u5283\uff0c\u6bcf\u652f\u7403\u968a\u90fd\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6309\u7167\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\uff0c\u96a8\u610f\u4ee5\u8fb2\u5834\u88dc\u5f37\u7403\u968a\u7684\u5f31\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u5f31\u9ede\u6709\u6642\u5019\u662f\u6253\u64ca\u5f37\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5920\u3001\u6709\u6642\u5019\u662f\u80fd\u5403\u5c40\u6578\u7684\u4e2d\u7e7c\u6295\u624b\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u6709\u6642\u5019\u662f\u9632\u5b88\u7a69\u5b9a\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5920\u3001\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5728\u85aa\u8cc7\u8ac7\u5224\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7403\u54e1\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u8d85\u904e\u7403\u968a\u80fd\u8ca0\u64d4\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\uff01\u7576\u7136\u5728\u7403\u5b63\u9032\u884c\u4e00\u534a\u5230\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u6642\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u80fd\u5426\u62ff\u5230\u9032\u5165\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd\u7684\u9580\u7968\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u8abf\u6574\u7403\u968a\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u990a\u4e00\u5806\u5c0f\u806f\u76df\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u96a8\u4fbf\u5728\u6574\u500b\u9ad4\u7cfb\u5347\u5347\u964d\u964d\u5c31\u80fd\u5920\u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\uff1b\u7403\u968a\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f15\u6613\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u5236\u5ea6\u600e\u9ebc\u5236\u8a02\u5230\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u6703\u5927\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\u7403\u968a\u9593\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8207\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff01\u5982\u679c\u4ea4\u6613\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5169\u968a\u4ea4\u63db\u7403\u54e1\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u8003\u91cf\u9084\u6bd4\u8f03\u55ae\u7d14\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u4ee5\u5927\u806f\u76df\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u898f\u5b9a\u7684\u8cfd\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u722d\u596a\u540c\u4e00\u5206\u5340\u53c3\u8207\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u65b9\u4ea4\u6613\u6709\u6642\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u7684\u3002\u800c\u8981\u6709\u591a\u65b9\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6bcf\u500b\u7403\u968a\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u3001\u6bcf\u4f4d\u7403\u54e1\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\u4e5f\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u986f\u5f97\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebcOakland A\u2019s\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5728\u660e\u661f\u8cfd\u5f8c\u7684\u52dd\u7387\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u80fd\u5920\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u7403\u968a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5275\u4e0b<a href=http:\/\/baseball.about.com\/library\/weekly\/aa090602.htm target=_blank>\u9023\u52dd20\u5834<\/a>\u7684\u7403\u968a\u7d00\u9304\uff08MLB\u7684\u9023\u52dd\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u662f1916\u5e74\u9084\u5728\u7d10\u7d04\u7684\u5de8\u4eba\u968a\u7684\u902326\u52dd\uff09\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70baBilly Beane\u7684\u795e\u6a23\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\uff01\u5728\u660e\u661f\u8cfd\u9032\u884c\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5206\u5340\u5176\u5be6\u5df2\u7d93\u7522\u751f\u9818\u5148\u7fa4\u8207\u843d\u5f8c\u7403\u968a\uff1b\u9818\u5148\u7fa4\u60f3\u8981\u978f\u56fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5730\u76e4\u3001\u843d\u5f8c\u7fa4\u4e5f\u8a31\u5df2\u7d93\u5dee\u592a\u591a\u800c\u53ea\u601d\u964d\u4f4e\u4eca\u5e74\u85aa\u8cc7\u3001\u4e26\u57f9\u990a\u65b0\u4eba\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u9019\u5169\u6a23\u60c5\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u5c31\u7522\u751f\u6709\u4eba\u5e0c\u671b\u88dc\u5f37\u54ea\u908a\u3001\u53c8\u6709\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u653e\u6389\u54ea\u908a\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002Billy\u6700\u53b2\u5bb3\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8c\u5341\u4e5d\u652f\u7403\u968a\u4e4b\u9593\u627e\u51fa\u7a7a\u9699\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u89c0\u770b\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u77ad\u89e3\u7403\u54e1\u5c0d\u7403\u968a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6240\u5728\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ee5\u5404\u7a2e\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4f5c\u70ba\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u7403\u54e1\u3001\u73fe\u91d1\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u9078\u79c0\u9806\u5e8f\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4ed6\u8b8a\u4ea4\u6613\u9b54\u8853\u7684\u9053\u5177\uff01\u6c92\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u9ad4\u5236\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u4eba\u7a31Moneyball\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u624b\u6cd5\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u662f\u7121\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u64cd\u4f5c\u624b\u6cd5\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u6df1\u6df1\u5730\u77ad\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7b49\u7d1a\u7684\u73a9\u6cd5\u5462\u3002<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u5c0d\u300c\u68d2\u7403\u300d\u7684\u8a8d\u771f\u614b\u5ea6<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u7279\u5225\u6307\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u8a8d\u771f\u770b\u5f85\u68d2\u7403\u3001\u4e26\u4e14\u5168\u5fc3\u6295\u5165\u300d\u9019\u6a23\u5b50\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5920\u9054\u5230\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\uff01\u5149\u770b\u68d2\u7403\u9019\u500b\u904b\u52d5\uff0c\u57281845\u5e74\u7531Alexander Cartwright\u8a02\u51fa\u58d8\u9593\u8ddd90\u82f1\u544e\u3001\u4e5d\u500b\u7403\u54e1\u8207\u6bcf\u534a\u5c40\u4e09\u500b\u51fa\u5c40\u6578\u7b49\u57fa\u672c\u898f\u5247\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e00\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u4fee\u6b63\u904e\uff0c\u5c31\u66c9\u5f97\u9019\u500b\u898f\u5247\u662f\u82b1\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u7cbe\u795e\u8207\u5fc3\u529b\u53bb\u5236\u8a02\uff08\u6216\u662f\u4fee\u6539\uff09\u800c\u6210\u7684\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u9019\u9805\u7279\u6b8a\u5718\u9ad4\u904b\u52d5\u7684\u4eba\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u6574\u500b\u8077\u696d\u5316\u3001\u5927\u773e\u5316\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u5be6\u5728\u662f\u591a\u5f69\u591a\u59ff\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u63d0\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5728\u6574\u672c\u66f8\u88e1\u7528\u5230\u6700\u591a\u7bc7\u5e45\uff08\u4e00\u6574\u500bchapter\u300132\u9801\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5c0d\u73fe\u4ee3\u68d2\u7403\u7d71\u8a08\u89c0\u5ff5\u6700\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u985b\u8986\u50b3\u7d71\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u300c\u4f5c\u8005\u300d\uff0dBill James\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u4ed6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u73fe\u4ee3\u68d2\u7403\u89c0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u95dc\u4ed6\u7684\u5805\u6301\u8207\u8457\u4f5c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u8acb\u5404\u4f4d\u53bb\u7ffb\u7ffb\u672c\u66f8\uff1b\u4e0d\u904e\u8b1b\u5230\u4ed6\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u795e\u5947\u53c8\u6975\u7aef\u8907\u96dc\u3001\u5149\u300c\u7c21\u5316\u7248\u300d\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u9801\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\u55ae\u4e00\u7403\u54e1\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e6b\u7403\u968a\u8d0f\u4e86\u5e7e\u5834\u7403\u7684Win Shares\uff08\u771f\u7684\u641e\u61c2\u4ed6\u7684\u83ef\u4eba\u4e0d\u66c9\u5f97\u6709\u5e7e\u4f4d\u2026\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u770b\u597d\u53cb<a href=http:\/\/winshares.blogspot.com\/ target=_blank>Debugger\u7684\u7db2\u7ad9<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5c0d\u68d2\u7403\u5b8c\u5168\u6295\u5165\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff01<\/p>\n<p>Win Shares\u7684\u7522\u751f\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u55ae\u4e00\u5929\u624d\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u898f\u529f\u65bc\u4e00\u7fa4\u5c0d\u68d2\u7403\u7d00\u9304\u6709\u5341\u5206\u9ad8\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u6703\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u8a0e\u8ad6\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u7d00\u9304\u72c2\u5011\u3002\u7576\u5927\u591a\u6578\u89c0\u773e\u5c0d\u65bc\u77ad\u89e3OPS\uff08\u4e0a\u58d8\u7387\u52a0\u4e0a\u9577\u6253\u7387\uff0cOn-base plus slugging\u7684\u7e2e\u5beb\uff09\u5df2\u7d93\u6cbe\u6cbe\u81ea\u559c\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u9084\u641e\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4e0a\u58d8\u7387\uff08OBP\u3001On-Base Percentage\uff09\u8207\u9577\u6253\u7387\uff08SLG\u3001Slugging Percentage\uff09\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u4eba\u9577\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\u5c0d\u7403\u968a\u7684\u8ca2\u737b\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u4e0a\u58d8\u7387\u8981\u6bd4\u9577\u6253\u7387\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u89c0\u5ff5\u4e86\uff01\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u55ce\uff1f\u662f\u8a8d\u771f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u884d\u4f38\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec<a href=http:\/\/twbaseball.info\/column.php?column_no=40 target=_blank>\u300c\u68d2\u7403\u7d00\u9304\u300d\u61c9\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u88ab\u8a8d\u771f\u770b\u5f85\uff1f<\/a>\u9084\u662f\u53ea\u662f\u770b\u770b\u5831\u7d19\u4e0a\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5c31\u597d\uff1f\u7403\u968a\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u8a55\u4f30\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u624b\u7684\u597d\u58de\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u66f4\u96e3\u7684\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\uff1f\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c<b>\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4e0b\uff0c\u7528\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8d0f\u7403\uff1f<\/b>\u4e5f\u8a31\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u82b1\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u597d\u597d\u7684\u518d\u601d\u8003\u4e00\u756a\u3002<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e5f\u8a31\u770b\u4e86Moneyball\uff0c\u60a8\u4e5f\u6703\u6709\u8ddf\u6211\u76f8\u540c\u3001\u6216\u662f\u5929\u5dee\u5730\u9060\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5192\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4eab\u53d7\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u6587\u5b57\u4e0a\u7684\u6d17\u934a\uff08\u82f1\u6587\u66f8\uff0c\u7528\u5b57\u4e0d\u6703\u592a\u96e3\uff1b\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u7248\u6b0a\u5df2\u6709\u51fa\u7248\u5546\u53d6\u5f97\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a312005\u5e74\u6703\u770b\u5230\u5427\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6eff\u8166\u5b50\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u70ba\u60a8\u5256\u6790\u5f97\u6e05\u6e05\u695a\u695a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u6642\uff0c\u8acb\u56de\u795e\u6ce8\u610f\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a\u66f8\u88e1\u9762\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u300c\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u300d\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u5011\u8eab\u8655\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u68d2\u7403\u3001\u5305\u62ec\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u3001\u5305\u62ec\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\u2026\uff09\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u5922\u5bd0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6c42\u3001\u537b\u53c8\u5be6\u5be6\u5728\u5728\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u908a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u60a8\u5c31\u591a\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u9ad4\u6703\u6211\u60f3\u8aaa\u7684\uff0c\u300c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u300d\u5427\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u5f9e\u6280\u8853\u9762\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5f9e\u5fc3\u7406\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u2026\u5b8c\u5b8c\u5168\u5168\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u806f\u76df\u8207\u8fb2\u5834\u9593\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u3002 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More<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-baseball","category-business-related"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktchiu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}